NO WAY will 50% of new cars sold in U.S. be EVs by 2030 !

CobawLT2010

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The Prius doesn't have to fast charge, and I'm not to what extent its BMU balances its cells, and what tolerances the BMU allows. As for the old modules, they get recycled and put into new products, and some probably even go into Powerwalls. The real issue here is that all of the modules in a pack were manufactured around the same time and if there were any manufacturing defects that caused 2 of those modules to fail, the rest are probably close to failure as well because they've all been subjected to the same operating conditions over their lifetimes. If I see any cracking in my tire sidewalls, ALL of the tires get replaced immediately, regardless of how they look, for the same reason. I'm not going to risk a blowout over trying to extend the life of my existing tires and trying to avoid having someone manufacture new ones.




We can argue about this all day. Fact of the matter is, if they done their homework and matched capacity on the modules it will last a good enough amount of time.
 

Deacon

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I don’t consider a car with 97k miles that much or a 2013 all that old.
It’s not so much a question of what you consider old. We don’t know what kind of cycles have been put on that battery. If it’s old enough to be out of warranty, and those miles have been hard ones and with lots of cycles, trying to piecemeal it with junkyard modules or aftermarket is less likely to work out.

if they done their homework and matched capacity on the modules it will last a good enough amount of time.
Maybe. Whatever gets more views, most likely.
 

CobawLT2010

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It’s not so much a question of what you consider old. We don’t know what kind of cycles have been put on that battery. If it’s old enough to be out of warranty, and those miles have been hard ones and with lots of cycles, trying to piecemeal it with junkyard modules or aftermarket is less likely to work out.


Maybe. Whatever gets more views, most likely.
Yeah but for a pack to have died at 97k, when Tesla is touting most packs of that era should last between 200k and 300k… and be mostly functional still… seems a bit sad.
 

STS-134

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We can argue about this all day. Fact of the matter is, if they done their homework and matched capacity on the modules it will last a good enough amount of time.
Sure, it may last longer. Just like if you looked hard enough, you may be able to find a used tire with comparable wear patterns to the other 3 already on your car if you happened to run over a nail and one got destroyed. But is it worth paying someone to balance and install a tire with 5/32" of tread left on it, just like the others? I can appreciate that there are guys like you who try to get every last bit of life out of every component in your vehicles but I think most people would lean toward doing what causes the car to not have to be in the shop again for as long as possible. As long as the people who did the work were completely transparent with the owner and told them it's likely to die again in less than a year, I've got no problem with what they did though. But if they expected this fix to be good for 3-5 years they're going to be disappointed.

Yeah but for a pack to have died at 97k, when Tesla is touting most packs of that era should last between 200k and 300k… and be mostly functional still… seems a bit sad.
Most packs do last that long, but whatever manufacturing defect/variation caused those two modules to die at 97k is probably present in the other 14 modules. And the clock is ticking on those too.
 

Deacon

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Yeah but for a pack to have died at 97k, when Tesla is touting most packs of that era should last between 200k and 300k… and be mostly functional still… seems a bit sad.
Most turbos last that long. But not always. Nothing made by man is perfect. Most detectors provide many years of trouble free service, but sometimes one needs to be sent back.
 

Rags

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Lol, I’ve done this with the Prius and as long as the cells are holding similar capacity on load then you’re fine. It’s likely the cells they replaced with used cells of similar capacity…

Pretty wasteful to replace the whole pack.
When you don't care about waste, this is what you do. Just toss the old and put the entire new unit in. Spend the 24,000 dollars and be done, right? Or better yet, throw the car away and replace it with a new one. I mean, the rest of the car has similar wear and tear, so it's obviously going to wear out sooner or later and become inoperable.

When something breaks inside your car, such as a window switch or headlight switch, why replace just the broken switch? Why not just replace all the switches, or better yet...replace the entire car as a module? It makes total sense!
 

CobawLT2010

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Most turbos last that long. But not always. Nothing made by man is perfect. Most detectors provide many years of trouble free service, but sometimes one needs to be sent back.
I’ve never had to replace a turbo at 100k… let alone 150k…
 

CobawLT2010

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Oh, well if you haven’t had to, then nobody has.
At least on GM vehicles it’s rare under 150k… usually the problem with turbos is improper maintenance. My dad has a Cruze with 180k with the original turbo. I’ve had multiple cruzes above that without a turbo swap. It’s more rare than you think… just like this issue is likely pretty rare with the Tesla. The only difference is you can have a turbo rebuilt or purchase one from a wrecker… install it… and expect a usable life out of it further.
 

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STS-134

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Ford will build a new plant in Tennessee to ramp up electric F-series production in 2025, and will open a new battery manufacturing complex in Kentucky the same year.

Interesting that Ford sees 40-50% of its fleet being sold in 2030 being EVs. If we assume that they barely meet the low end of that range (i.e. 40%), and new companies like Tesla and Lucid are selling 100% EVs, it's conceivable that 50% of total vehicle sales will be EVs in 2030.
Apparently Lucid now holds the record for EV with the 520 miles of rated range. I wonder how long Tesla is going to allow this to stand before it releases the delayed Model S Plaid+. I'm guessing that they'll at least redesign it to get at least 525-530 miles of rated range.
 

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Interesting that Ford sees 40-50% of its fleet being sold in 2030 being EVs. If we assume that they barely meet the low end of that range (i.e. 40%), and new companies like Tesla and Lucid are selling 100% EVs, it's conceivable that 50% of total vehicle sales will be EVs in 2030.

Apparently Lucid now holds the record for EV with the 520 miles of rated range. I wonder how long Tesla is going to allow this to stand before it releases the delayed Model S Plaid+. I'm guessing that they'll at least redesign it to get at least 525-530 miles of rated range.
They'd better stick more than 1100HP in there too. That Lucid is one impressive machine. I'd love to see an arms race between Tesla and Lucid.
 

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I’ve never had to replace a turbo at 100k… let alone 150k…
I've had to, but luckily you can rebuild OEM turbos for a few hundred bucks.
 

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I can tell you right now. If we don’t do 50% EV by 2030 then China will be the largest economy and eat us alive.
They are all in on EV. Huge penalties on ICE cars and none on EV because of the high pollution and number of people there.
 

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Strange that they would go hybrid, at this point. Hybrid tend to not excel in performance by any metric as well as high cost. It’s more or less why GM abandoned the Volt. You either totally optimize it for ICE or EV. Having both the alternate fuel just gets in the way. Maybe there version of Hybrid is an Auto Stop/Start like BMW does ;)
 

Deacon

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Hybrid tend to not excel in performance by any metric as well as high cost.
High cost usually isn’t an issue for Lamborghini. The 918 and many others would disagree about the performance potential.
 

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